Written by Konstantinos Manikas, Economist – Psychologist, Author
Each year begins with the hope of proving better than the previous one. Greece may leave behind the unbearable Memorandum phase, but the road ahead opens up many national and economic pitfalls. That is why those who regard elections as a useful political tool, in this critical context, would do well to think again.
The country is looking for growth ebb and the transformation of the positive domestic climate into a stable investment momentum. Tax cuts, continued reforms and the digitization of government operations, along with the low cost of borrowing and the gradual rationalization of red loans, are helping to foster the feeling of a definitive page shift in the market.
But the situation is not so ideal. Greece is trying to make a move at a time when international conditions are raising big questions about the economic future.
World trade war seems to be smoothing out, but it remains unclear how long it will last and when it will rejuvenate and expand, as long as the reasons for it have not disappeared.
Central banks have almost exhausted their monetary intervention. Initially the US and a little later the EU. they supported their plan to get out of the crisis and into quantitative easing. But now deflation and anemic growth are throwing the ball in initiatives in states with extremely positive current account balances and high surpluses. Only when the levels of public debt are still such that the reluctance to intervene remains.
Activating fiscal intervention, which has been suggested since the beginning of the crisis as a useful, temporary tool, may stimulate consumption but will not break the Gordian bond of the day. The productive transition to the 4th industrial revolution raises a number of issues that require time and structural changes, the course of which will be combined with an insecure and adverse environment.
This climate is called upon to face Greece while at the same time the diplomatic pressures in our region are becoming increasingly intense. On the one hand, the energy interests in the Eastern Mediterranean, and on the other, the Turkish provocation that through immigration attempts to impose the Aegean on the whole and not only.
Not many have accused Tsipras of essentially swapping the cancellation of the new pension cuts with national concessions in Skopje. What is reasonably of concern to the Greeks is unlikely, and developments in Greek-Turkish have been used by some circles of influence as a leverage to maintain positive expectations in the economic field. And after the Prespa agreement wound, the body of our homeland and our soul can not stand a second knife.